Scenario Building
In studying alternative ‘futures’ we are using Scenario Building--an approach originally proposed as a business strategy in 1970s (Royal Dutch/Shell) and recently applied in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment—to systematically and creatively think about plausible futures. Scenarios are plausible alternative futures -- what might happen under particular assumptions. By focusing on key drivers, complex interactions, and irreducible uncertainties, scenario building generates the futures within which we can assess alternative mitigation strategies including the future without restoration.
Scenario building generally involves eight key steps
In the example below, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is used to describe the eight key steps to the scenario building process.