Submit an additional question to the Agency team >>

Agency Discussion Questions

Role: Public agencies are a significant potential end user of the scenarios. A team of agency representative will delineate critical elements to include in the scenario development in order to ensure their usability.

Initial Questions:

1. What would allow you to use the scenarios?
2. With what resolution and extent should the scenarios be described?
3. What does your organization consider useful metrics to indicate the future health of this region?
4. What type of description is more useful to your organization - qualitative or quantitative?
5. What language would make the scenarios usable?
6. What are examples of good studies that your organization uses often and you believe we can learn from?

Submit an additional question to the Communication team >>

Communication Discussion Questions

Role: Communicating the final scenarios with a wide audience will be critical for sharing the knowledge gained through this process. A team of experts in communication and outreach will help translate complex scientific date into compelling scenarios that can be read and understood by a wide audience.

Initial Questions:

1. What information should each scenario contain
2. What type of pictures, figures, graphs would be useful to tell our story
3. In what manner should we present the scenarios (i.e. newsletter, presentation, report)?
4. In what detail should we describe the scenarios?
5. What language would make the scenarios usable?
6. How long should the scenario description(s) be?
7. What are good examples of publications that have done this well?

Submit an additional question to the Climate Change team >>

Climate Change Discussion Questions

Role: A leading role in developing the initial hypotheses for each scenario, exploring data gaps in our knowledge, and helping narrate the initial scenario storylines. A focus on potential projections of future climate impacts, especially as they pertain to changes in the hydrological regime of this region.

Initial Questions

1. The scenarios are divided by the magnitude of impact this region will experience from climate change. How would you characterize a major and minor impact for this region?
   • What specific parameters help describe the relative impacts?
2. The scenarios are subdivided by the rate or pace of climate change we may experience in this region. What would a ‘fast’ versus ‘slow’ pace of climate impacts look like?
3. A fundamental element in scenario development is looking at the interaction between driving forces. The six scenarios integrate climate change with human perceptions and behavior.
   • How might these two driving forces interact?
   • How might the interaction create alternative trajectories?
4. As a leading team, your role is developing the primer scenarios that the supporting teams will utilize to forecast the trajectories of their driving force. Describe the hypothesis behind each scenario.
5. What elements should each scenario contain?
6. What questions should we be asking of the experts for the “supporting eight key driving forces”?
7. In furthering the understanding of climate change under the alternative scenarios:
   • What publications should we refer to (review of current literature)?
   • What models are available?
   • Who should we be talking to?

Submit an additional question to the Human Perceptions and Behavior team >>

Human Perceptions and Behavior

Role: A leading role in developing the initial hypotheses for each scenario, exploring data gaps in our knowledge, and helping narrate the initial scenario storylines. A focus on how societal behavior and perceptions may change in this region, and the consequent influence on lifestyle, consumption, attitudes and ethics.

Initial questions:

1. The scenarios are divided by individual and collective social preferences. How would you characterize the two alternatives and their impact on this region?
   • What specific parameters help describe the relative impacts?
2. The scenarios are subdivided by a long and short term future valuation. How would these valuation alternatives impact this region?
   • What specific parameters help describe the relative impacts?
3. A fundamental element in scenario development is looking at the interaction between driving forces. The six scenarios integrate climate change with human perceptions and behavior.
   • How might these two driving forces interact?
   • How might the interaction create alternative trajectories?
4. As a leading team, your role is developing the primer scenarios that the supporting teams will utilize to forecast the trajectories of their driving force. Describe the hypothesis behind each scenario.
5. What elements should each scenario contain?
6. What questions should we be asking of the experts for the “supporting eight key driving forces”?
7. In furthering the understanding of human perceptions and behavior under the alternative scenarios:
   • What publications should we refer to (review of current literature?)
   • What models are available?
   • Who should we be talking to?

Submit an additional question to the Demographics team >>

Demographics

Role: Delineating future trajectories for their driving force under each scenario. A focus on the future demographic distribution for this region including population size and growth rates, age and race distribution, household size and migration patterns.

Initial Questions

1. How will the six scenarios impact demographics overall?
2. How will the six scenario impact specific demographic aspects including number of people per time period, race / ethnicity, gender, age distribution, fertility, mortality and birth, migration, household size and income?
3. Do you have information about specific future phenomena (i.e. baby boom, or education)
4. What questions should we ask of the supporting experts?
5. In furthering the understanding of demographics under the alternative scenarios:
   • What are good resources (i.e. publications, agencies, reports, model) to collect additional information on this topic?
   • Who else should we talk to?

Submit an additional question to the Development Patterns team >>

Development Patterns

Role: Delineating future trajectories for their driving force under each scenario. A focus on the future development patterns in terms of both their configuration and composition. The team will identify spatial and temporal patterns of change to the region’s landscape. Further the team will clarify specific attributes of new development such as form and density.

Initial Questions

1. How will the six scenarios impact development patters overall?
2. How will the six scenarios impact specific development patterns aspects including number of people per impervious surface? Landcover change (forest loss, agricultural transition, wetland loss/restoration), the GMA and growth boundaries, new structures and their footprint, and fragmentation / connectivity,
3. Where might new development take place (by the shore, uplands or sprawled, by city center or by edge)?
4. What will be the form of new development?
5. What might the future of property ownership look like (what’s protected, what is most vulnerable to development, etc.)
6. What will future development practices look like? how will they influence our lifestyle?
7. What questions should we ask of the supporting experts?
8. In furthering the understanding of development patterns under the alternative scenarios:
   • What are good resources (i.e. publications, agencies, reports, model) to collect additional information on this topic?
   • Who else should we talk to?

Submit an additional question to the Economics team >>

Economics

Role: Delineating future trajectories for their driving force under each scenario. The role of this team is to describe the region’s economy under alternative scenarios. Critical components include the strength of the economy, the interaction between the global, national and regional economy, the diversity and direction of employment opportunities.

Initial Questions

1. How will the six scenarios impact economics overall?
2. How will the six scenarios impact specific economic aspects including the Washington GDP? The labor force (skilled, education, sector (technology, industry, etc.), the diversity of our economy, will we encounter a boom or bust?
3. How will economic change interact with migration patterns?
4. How will the national economy impact this region? How will the local economy change under each scenario?
5. Will this region lose its competitive niche?
6. How does will economic change interact with transportation?
7. What questions should we ask of the supporting experts?
8. In furthering the understanding of the economy under the alternative scenarios:
   • What are good resources (i.e. publications, agencies, reports, model) to collect additional information on this topic?
   • Who else should we talk to?

Submit an additional question to the Knowledge and Information team >>

Knowledge and Information

Role: Delineating future trajectories for their driving force under each scenario. This driving force focuses on how access to information can influence the Puget Sound Region. Topics include knowledge transfer through K-12 education and higher education, new knowledge creation through research and environmental awareness.

Initial Questions

1. How will the six scenarios impact knowledge and information overall?
2. How will the six scenarios impact specific knowledge and information aspects including accessibility and amount? public education, funding, direction of education, environmental awareness, public participation, pollution abatement and regulation, class size and quality of K-12, university and their focus.
3. What will we focus on in new knowledge creation –: Genetic engineering? Fuel cells? Alternative energies?
4. How will the military and defense influence knowledge and information?
5. What questions should we ask of the supporting experts?
6. In furthering the understanding of knowledge and information under the alternative scenarios:
   • What are good resources (i.e. publications, agencies, reports, model) to collect additional information on this topic?
   • Who else should we talk to?

Submit an additional question to the Natural Hazards team >>

Natural Hazards

Role: Delineating future trajectories for their driving force under each scenario. A focus on major hazards including seismic activity, flooding, droughts and landslides. This team will describe the potential for and impact of disasters under alternative scenarios.

Initial Questions

1. How will the six scenarios impact natural hazards overall?
2. How will the six scenarios impact specific natural hazards aspects including magnitude of impact (human life and cost of damage)? focus of new ideas, threats, perceptions of threats?
3. What are future projections for the location, magnitude and impact of volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, flooding, fires? what are their probabilities?
4. What are the threats form Climate change
5. What questions should we ask of the supporting experts?
6. In furthering the understanding of natural hazards under the alternative scenarios:
   • What are good resources (i.e. publications, agencies, reports, model) to collect additional information on this topic?
   • Who else should we talk to?

Submit an additional question to the Public Health team >>

Public Health

Role: Delineating future trajectories for their driving force under each scenario. This team will focus on the interaction between the landscape and human health. Topics include the future of agriculture and aquaculture. In addition a look at how environmental changes including urbanization, pollutants and declining accessibility to natural resources may influence public health.

Initial Questions

1. How will the six scenarios impact Public Health overall?
2. How will the six scenarios impact specific Public Health aspects including safety and health? water quality, air quality,
3. What are reported challenges with future incidences of specific diseases, contamination of food, cancer rates and other long term illnesses, mental health and perceptions of the environment?
4. How does the impact of pollution alter under each scenario? What is the impact on our food sources? The state of agriculture and aquaculture in the future?
5. How will health care provision interact with these factors?
6. What questions should we ask of the supporting experts?
7. In furthering the understanding of public health under the alternative scenarios:
   1. What are good resources (i.e. publications, agencies, reports, model) to collect additional information on this topic?
   2. Who else should we talk to?

Submit an additional question to the Regulations, Government and Leadership team >>

Regulations, Government and Leadership

Role: Delineating future trajectories for their driving force under each scenario. This team will be addressing alternative forms of governance for this region including political leadership, strength of public will, the direction of new regulation, and the centralization of control.

Initial Questions

1. How will the six scenarios impact Government, Regulations and Leadership overall?
2. How will the six scenarios impact specific Government, Regulations and Leadership aspects including centralization of government?
3. What are opportunities for new bills under each scenario? Which regulations might be coming in over the next fifty years
4. How might the influence of different partisan views impact this region
5. What is the interaction with other key drivers including changes in economic development, in infrastructure, in direction of growth?
6. How might federal changes in regulations, government and leadership impact this region? How might local decisions change regional ones?
7. What about the tribes? What will be their role? How might this change with each scenario?
8. What might be the influence of political will?
9. What questions should we ask of the supporting experts?
10. In furthering the understanding of regulation, government and leadership under the alternative scenarios:
    • What are good resources (i.e. publications, agencies, reports, model) to collect additional information on this topic?
    • Who else should we talk to?

Submit an additional question to the Technology and Infrastructure team >>

Technology and Infrastructure

Role: Delineating future trajectories for their driving force under each scenario. This team will focus on new technological advances and their potential implementation through infrastructure improvements. Potential arenas of interest include energy provision, water supply, transportation and sewer and waste removal.

Initial Questions

1. How will the six scenarios impact Infrastructure and Transportation overall?
2. How will the six scenarios impact specific Infrastructure and Transportation aspects including rate of innovation? services, facilities, economic activity, transportation, energy provision, water provisions, waste disposal?
3. How might social conditions change to impact innovation?
4. What are some potential technological changes that we could see? What might be their implications for the nearshore and impacts on other drivers?
5. How will this region’s technological innovations compare to national and global advances.
6. How will activities such as natural extraction such as mining, forest/timber, water, oil, etc change?
7. What are possibilities in the arena of genetic or health changes?
8. What questions should we ask of the supporting experts?
9. In furthering the understanding of technology and infrastructure under the alternative scenarios:
   • What are good resources (i.e. publications, agencies, reports, model) to collect additional information on this topic?
   • Who else should we talk to?

Submit an additional question to the Metrics and Ecosystem Functions Team >>

Metrics and Ecosystem Functions

Role: The Metrics and Ecosystem functions team will be in charge of selecting metrics that can help assess a variety of indicators of nearshore ecosystem functions.

The list of metrics will be constrained by metrics that are correlated to essential nearshore functions, are sensitive to differences between the scenarios and potential restoration portfolios, and that we have the capacity to measure.

Initial Questions to both Teams

1. What are useful metrics to measure the ecological functions of the nearshore?
2. What is the relationship between the function, process and pattern for specific variable (assist with relational database)
3. Which metrics are unique in that they do not represent a function easily measured by another metric?
4. Which metrics constitute essential structural metrics
5. Which metrics do we have information for?
6. Which metrics best differentiate between these scenarios?
7. Which metrics are effective at helping us tell a compelling story?
8. In furthering the understanding of metrics and ecosystem functions:
   • What are good resources (i.e. publications, agencies, reports, model) to collect additional information on this topic?
   • Who else should we talk to?
   • What additional questions would help clarify problem areas? Who should we direct these questions at?

Submit an additional question to the Modeling team >>

Modeling

Role: The final scenarios will be utilized as base assumptions to calibrate an integrated model capable of measuring ecosystem functions through an output of selected metrics. This team will be in charge of identifying relevant models and informing the Urban Ecology Research Laboratory of model specifications, focus, and limitations. Future steps include developing a framework for integrating the selected models.

Initial Questions to both Teams

1. What models are available to assist us with these scenarios?
2. What are useful resources to understand more about these models?
3. Where are there gaps?
4. What are the limitations of the existing models?
5. How have these models been integrated in the past?
6. Which models are the most sensitive to changes between the scenarios?
7. In furthering the understanding of existing models:
   • What are good resources (i.e. publications, agencies, reports, model) to collect additional information on this topic?
   • Who else should we talk to?
   • What additional questions would help clarify problem areas? Who should we direct these questions at?